So after the Prime Minister’s confusing message last night (10/5/2020) we have a Roadmap to recovery – Really? What’s a Roadmap meant to mean whilst we’re on this “Journey” of the Covid 19 Pandemic? The underlying message has been to firstly save the NHS – well that’s been done and the NHS as always rose to the occasion and coped brilliantly, so much so, the emergency Nightingale Hospitals have now been mothballed. Secondly the lockdown was aimed at preventing mass infections and a death toll of 500,000 – that’s been prevented. Now we’re having to continue the partial lockdown to prevent a “Spike” and further infections.
Is a spike going to happen? Sure we will get transient small spikes in infections, it always happens, but a huge spike – I’m not really sure and I hope I’m right. We’re now getting information that the Covid 19 virus was around much earlier than thought, and some of the models being used assume that the numbers of those infected is 10/20/or even 50 times higher than measured – we don’t know as Public Health England never addressed the issue of prevalence in the community. We just don’t know, and maybe just maybe we are approaching “Herd Immunity” and the virus will just peter out with a couple of small spikes. This is only one scenario, as why would the government allow this limited return to work? Today’s pictures of the crowded London Underground show we’re now back to those days (and images) of the early phase of Lockdown that saw that huge increase in infections in late March.
For the conspiracy theorists amongst you – if this is a manufactured virus there would possibly be an inbuilt DNA/RNA strand that would limit the life cycle of the virus after a particular number of host infections – you see this in any number of Bacteria and Viruses and is called ATTENUATION – just a thought – we just have to wait and see.